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Table 3 Evaluation of prediction models for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia

From: Comparison of subjective cognitive decline and polygenic risk score in the prediction of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia

Model performance measures

Model 1a

 

Model 2b

CAIDE

CAIDE + PRS

CAIDE + SCD

 

CAIDE

CAIDE + PRS

CAIDE + SCD

All-cause dementia (n = 410)

AIC

6364.8

6351.6

6352.9

 

6318.2

6319.9

6306.5

AUC (95% CI)

0.785

(0.765–0.806)

0.790

(0.769–0.810)

0.788

(0.768–0.809)

 

0.800

(0.780–0.820)

0.800

(0.780–0.820)

0.803

(0.782–0.823)

Reclassification

       

Events nup/ndown

Ref.

37/29

44/30

 

Ref.

6/4

40/29

Nonevents nup/ndown

Ref.

237/264

258/307

 

Ref.

37/45

244/266

NRI % c (p-value)

Ref.

2.5% (0.219)

4.4% (0.040)

 

Ref.

0.6% (0.335)

3.1% (0.064)

IDI % (p-value)

Ref.

0.07% (0.070)

0.04% (0.011)

 

Ref.

0.005% (0.968)

0.05% (0.008)

Alzheimer’s disease (n = 139)

AIC

2163.7

2141.0

2164.1

 

2124.0

2122.2

2124.4

AUC (95% CI)

0.793

(0.758–0.827)

0.808

(0.774–0.841)

0.793

(0.759–0.827)

 

0.827

(0.795–0.859)

0.827

(0.795–0.859)

0.827

(0.795–0.859)

Reclassification

       

Events nup/ndown

Ref.

28/20

7/7

 

Ref.

8/9

7/3

Nonevents nup/ndown

Ref.

396/525

143/162

 

Ref.

181/193

138/153

NRI % d (p-value)

Ref.

8.4% (0.026)

0.4% (0.859)

 

Ref.

-0.5% (0.841)

3.2% (0.128)

IDI % (p-value)

Ref.

0.05% (0.030)

-0.004% (0.510)

 

Ref.

0.01% (0.132)

0.0003% (0.296)

Vascular dementia (n = 152)

AIC

2331.9

2363.7

2356.3

 

2355.4

2356.3

2349.8

AUC (95% CI)

0.789

(0.757–0.822)

0.790

(0.757–0.822)

0.794

(0.761–0.828)

 

0.793

(0.760–0.826)

0.794

(0.761–0.827)

0.798

(0.764–0.831)

Reclassification

       

Events nup/ndown

Ref.

4/2

24/14

 

Ref.

7/7

17/18

Nonevents nup/ndown

Ref.

45/32

287/344

 

Ref.

99/97

289/317

NRI % e (p-value)

Ref.

1.1% (0.316)

7.7% (0.010)

 

Ref.

-0.04% (0.981)

-0.09% (0.975)

IDI % (p-value)

Ref.

0.002% (0.837)

0.003% (0.093)

 

Ref.

-0.004% (0.359)

-0.007% (0.068)

  1. Note: Numbers printed in bold are statistically significant (P < 0.05)
  2. Abbreviations: SCD, subjective cognitive decline; PRS, polygenic risk score; AIC, Akaike’s information criterion; AUC, area under the curve; NRI, net reclassification improvement; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement
  3. aCAIDE Model 1 includes age, education, sex, systolic blood pressure, BMI, total cholesterol and physical activity
  4. bCAIDE Model 2 includes all variables listed in Model 1 and APOE ε4 carrier status
  5. cThe cutoffs for all-cause dementia were set to 7%, 15%, and 30%
  6. dThe cutoffs for AD were set to 3%, 6%, and 11%
  7. eThe cutoffs for VD were set to 3.5%, 7%, and 14%
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Alzheimer's Research & Therapy

ISSN: 1758-9193