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Table 6 Evaluation of the discriminative ability for vascular dementia in mid-life and late-life

From: Comparison of subjective cognitive decline and polygenic risk score in the prediction of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia

Model performance measures

Model 1a

 

Model 2b

CAIDE

CAIDE

+ PRS

CAIDE

+ SCD

 

CAIDE

CAIDE

+ PRS

CAIDE

+ SCD

Mid-life (50–64 years)[ntotal=3377, ncases=47]

AIC

707.6

709.3

709.4

 

708.9

710.9

710.8

AUC (95% CI)

0.757

(0.703–0.812)

0.759

(0.702–0.815)

0.758

(0.703–0.812)

 

0.762

(0.706–0.817)

0.761

(0.705–0.818)

0.762

(0.706–0.818)

Reclassification

       

Events nup/ndown

Ref.

4/1

3/4

 

Ref.

4/1

5/3

Nonevents nup/ndown

Ref.

99/99

115/110

 

Ref.

26/39

93/122

NRI %c (p-value)

Ref.

6.38% (0.076)

-2.3% (0.554)

 

Ref.

6.8% (0.001)

5.1% (0.174)

IDI % (p-value)

Ref.

0.00007 (0.357)

-0.0005 (0.562)

 

Ref.

-0.0003 (0.451)

-0.0006 (0.588)

Late-life (65–75 years)[ntotal=1725, ncases=105]

AIC

1475.2

1477.2

1468.5

 

1469.4

1469.7

1462.9

AUC (95% CI)

0.669

(0.616–0.721)

0.669

(0.616–0.721)

0.694

(0.643–0.745)

 

0.683

(0.628–0.737)

0.683

(0.628–0.738)

0.702

(0.649–0.755)

Reclassification

       

Events nup/ndown

Ref.

1/1

29/19

 

Ref.

12/3

25/17

Nonevents nup/ndown

Ref.

9/3

283/334

 

Ref.

98/107

288/317

NRI %d (p-value)

Ref.

-0.4% (0.683)

12.7% (0.043)

 

Ref.

9.1% (0.011)

9.4% (0.127)

IDI % (p-value)

Ref.

0.002% (0.911)

0.01% (0.134)

 

Ref.

-0.01% (0.444)

0.3% (0.088)

  1. Note: Numbers printed in bold are statistically significant (P < 0.05)
  2. Abbreviations: SCD, subjective cognitive decline; PRS, polygenic risk score; AIC, Akaike’s information criterion; AUC, area under the curve; NRI, net reclassification improvement; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement
  3. aCAIDE Model 1 includes age, education, sex, systolic blood pressure, BMI, total cholesterol and physical activity
  4. bCAIDE Model 2 includes all variables listed in Model 1 and APOE ε4 carrier status
  5. cThe cutoffs for mid-life were set to 1.75%, 2.5%, and 3.5
  6. dThe cutoffs for late-life were set to 6.25%, 10%, and 15.5%