Model performance measures | Model 1a | Model 2b | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAIDE | CAIDE + PRS | CAIDE + SCD | CAIDE | CAIDE + PRS | CAIDE + SCD | ||
Mid-life (50–64 years)[ntotal=3377, ncases=47] | |||||||
AIC | 707.6 | 709.3 | 709.4 | 708.9 | 710.9 | 710.8 | |
AUC (95% CI) | 0.757 (0.703–0.812) | 0.759 (0.702–0.815) | 0.758 (0.703–0.812) | 0.762 (0.706–0.817) | 0.761 (0.705–0.818) | 0.762 (0.706–0.818) | |
Reclassification | |||||||
Events nup/ndown | Ref. | 4/1 | 3/4 | Ref. | 4/1 | 5/3 | |
Nonevents nup/ndown | Ref. | 99/99 | 115/110 | Ref. | 26/39 | 93/122 | |
NRI %c (p-value) | Ref. | 6.38% (0.076) | -2.3% (0.554) | Ref. | 6.8% (0.001) | 5.1% (0.174) | |
IDI % (p-value) | Ref. | 0.00007 (0.357) | -0.0005 (0.562) | Ref. | -0.0003 (0.451) | -0.0006 (0.588) | |
Late-life (65–75 years)[ntotal=1725, ncases=105] | |||||||
AIC | 1475.2 | 1477.2 | 1468.5 | 1469.4 | 1469.7 | 1462.9 | |
AUC (95% CI) | 0.669 (0.616–0.721) | 0.669 (0.616–0.721) | 0.694 (0.643–0.745) | 0.683 (0.628–0.737) | 0.683 (0.628–0.738) | 0.702 (0.649–0.755) | |
Reclassification | |||||||
Events nup/ndown | Ref. | 1/1 | 29/19 | Ref. | 12/3 | 25/17 | |
Nonevents nup/ndown | Ref. | 9/3 | 283/334 | Ref. | 98/107 | 288/317 | |
NRI %d (p-value) | Ref. | -0.4% (0.683) | 12.7% (0.043) | Ref. | 9.1% (0.011) | 9.4% (0.127) | |
IDI % (p-value) | Ref. | 0.002% (0.911) | 0.01% (0.134) | Ref. | -0.01% (0.444) | 0.3% (0.088) |