Fig. 4

Predicted trajectory of PAL scores in decliner and non-decliner groups. Trajectory of PAL scores in decliner and non-decliner groups: Linear regression lines in each group are overlaid on individual spaghetti plots in groups stratified by decliner status. Decliners were identified based on PAL FAMS slopes over time at or below the fifth percentile relative to the group mean slope, while PAL TEA decliner was defined as 95th percentile or higher. The analysis was conducted using only participants who had at least two PAL scores available (n = 10,065). PAL, paired associates learning; FAMS, first attempt memory score; TEA, total errors adjusted; ECog, Everyday cognition scale; GDS, geriatric depression scale; AD, Alzheimer’s disease